Expert Political Judgment

副标题: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

ISBN: 9780691128719

出版社: Princeton University Press

出版年: 2006-8-20

页数: 352

定价: USD 30.95

装帧: Paperback

内容简介

It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as "analysts" and "experts". . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself.

作者简介

菲利普?E?泰特洛克（Philip E. Tetlock），耶鲁大学心理学博士，现为宾夕法尼亚大学心理学和管理学教授，主要研究兴趣包括：决策与判断、社会压力的应对方式等。本书为其代表性著作，获2006年美国政治科学协会的罗伯特?莱恩最佳政治心理学著作奖、伍德罗?威尔逊最佳政府、政治学或国际事务著作奖以及2008年哈罗德?拉斯韦尔政治心理学杰出科学贡献奖等。

译者： 季乃礼，南开大学周恩来政府管理学院教授。出版专著《三纲六纪与社会整合》、《哈贝马斯政治思想研究》，教材《政治心理学导论》，发表论文40多篇。近年来主要从事西方政治心理学理论的梳理，以及政治心理学的本土化研究。

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